Democrats fight to win control of the House in 2018 midterms

Nate Silver on Whether Dems Will Take the House

Pelosi tells Democrats not to be baited by Trump's 'scaravans'; 'San Francisco values, that's what we're about'

The rejected ad featured footage of an undocumented immigrant from Mexico, Luis Bracamontes, bragging about his murder of two California police officers in 2014, with ominous music in the background, followed by images of the migrant caravan that originated in Central America of poor refugees and asylum seekers that Trump and his mostly white followers have characterized as criminals and terrorists.

So the stakes for today's election are very high indeed, and current polling indicates that the most likely scenario is that Democrats will take back control of the House of Representatives and that Republicans will retain control of the Senate. Median outcome = D+36 seats. And if there was any doubt that this election is all about Trump, he made that clear.

Trump has been beating the drum against a caravan of migrants from Central America that is vending its way through Mexico to the USA border. Loves his Country and his State.

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Among white college-educated women, Democrats enjoy a 28-point advantage: 61 per cent to 33 per cent. Mr Trump is fighting hard for this seat and chose Missouri as the location for his final campaign rally.

As the results begin to come in later in the day, Wolf said he's going to be closely watching the gubernatorial races. It can be considered an invasion.

In an interview with ABC on Monday, the president said he wished he had had "a much softer tone" throughout his presidency. And there are reports since that besides the U.S. army, several militia groups are headed to defend the border. Trump's 29% chance is not an insignificant chance - it's greater than a one in four chance of winning - but this was interpreted as a certain victory for Clinton.

Some 34.3 million people have cast early ballots and the real number is probably higher, according to the US Elections Project, a University of Florida-based information source. "And especially in the House where a simple majority gives you nearly absolute power to again set the agenda and get bills across the floor".

"The Republican Party, first of all, is going to be the Trump party", Gingrich says. This is particularly true of the Senate, where each state has two seats regardless of population.

"[Democrats will] have legislation that meets [voters'] needs, identifies, connects with them so that they see where the Republicans are and where the Democrats are on that", she said.

If Republicans maintain their hold on both the Senate and the House of Representatives, they could build on their agenda and that of President Trump. In that scenario, Democrats would only need to win eight of the 30 races in Toss Up to win control (they now hold one Toss Up, Minnesota's 1st CD).

Trump faces potentially debilitating fallout should Republicans lose control of one or both chambers in Congress, ending two years of GOP hegemony in Washington. Democrats have been hoping for large turnouts from the Hispanic and African-American communities, who tend to vote blue.

There were late alarm bells sounded last week over longtime GOP Alaska Rep. Don Young, who as the longest-serving member of the House is the dean of the House.

Trump is being seen as a man who fosters the economy and does not impose taxes on all to support the welfare measures for the poorer. "But if there's misogyny, there's also a big upside in women". At the same time, Republican governors in Maryland and MA - traditionally blue states - look poised for easy re-election victories. If Abrams wins, she will be the first black woman to become the governor of the conservative Southern state of Georgia.

Still, his xenophobic rhetoric has been unprecedented for an American president in the modern era: "Barbed wire used properly can be a lovely sight", Trump told voters in Montana. That is exactly what they are going to get.

So the first reason we can trust the polls in 2018 is because they weren't actually wrong in 2016, at least as far as the popular vote is concerned.

Democratic candidates for the House of Representative have raised $649m (£500m) from individual donors, more than doubling the $312m tally for the Republicans.

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